It’s that time of year, again!
Once again, I have made a donation to St Vincent’s Hospice (here’s a link: St Vincent’s for anyone who hasn’t utilised their charitable gifting budget) as an alternative to sending cards to clients, contacts and friends of the firm. Whilst this started back in 2007 as a result of me having insufficient time to organise myself, after having just started Kepstorn, the past few years (even pre-Covid) have seen an increasing move towards electronic greetings, and away from “snail mail”. Environmentally, this obviously makes sense and, in the wake of the Horizon scandal, I would much rather see charities benefit than the mail service.
This move to electronic interaction with others was obviously accelerated by the lockdowns, but the rise of Teams, Zoom and a plethora of other platforms meant that, technologically, we were dragged (kicking and screaming in some cases) into the 21st Century. Culturally, however, we still seem to inhabit a 19th Century (or earlier) approach to this time of year whilst the commercialisation of Christmas is criticised as very 20th Century. With the advent of AI, we are also now facing what writers characterised as a future “threat” much earlier than it seems we can cope with; the 22nd Century brought forward!
Economically, I have previously commented upon the impact of both the “credit crunch” and the Covid pandemic. Now, it seems, those shocks to the world economy may pale in comparison to the potential threat of a collapse in confidence in the AI “bubble”. The level of the threat arises from the convergence of risks in several different areas. Firstly, there is the commitment of capital by funds that manage the pension and savings investments of individuals. Secondly, there is the commitment of loan funds from banks upon whom (as the credit crunch showed) the world economy relies. Thirdly, there is the “cross-contamination” of so many large corporate entities; they are all investing in and contracting with each other in a circular and closed economic “eco system”. It seems that if any one of the bullish projections turns out to be misplaced, the whole pack of cards (or line of dominoes) will come tumbling down, taking the world economy with it.
Enough of the macro pontifications; on the micro scale, this past year has seen a marked increase in activity at Kepstorn. After so long thinking that there was a post-Covid plateau, achieved in mid-2021, which was being maintained in the years that followed, 2025 was much busier and brought some very interesting assignments (one or two of which will last for some time to come). It’s always nice to be challenged, intellectually, and the breadth of mandates worked on certainly provided that. Both Donald and I continue to work with clients and contacts that we have known for very many years and who repeatedly introduce us to their own networks of contacts and to new and interesting work.
On the non-economic front, this year has not seen any less horror, outrage and distress. Is it because there is more of it or because there is greater reporting of it? The hope must be that it is the wide-spread reporting that has lead to the apparent deluge of evil and that the reporting is, itself, also the method of combating it – bringing into the light what has always tried to hide for view. I suppose that it is always darkest before the dawn – the litany of suffering must reach a point where humanity’s response of common decency starts to turn the tide. It is impossible to know exactly when the tide has turned, but we can but hope that we are passed the worst.
After that sobering thought, I need to cheer myself up and, as ever, there is so much that is positive in the world around us. Whilst news broadcasts seem to focus on the bad, the mad and the sad, there are plenty of signs of what is, in truth, the overwhelming propensity towards generosity in human nature. From small acts of kindness to acts of heroism, people, in general, often look out for others without even thinking about it. It is not even a “this time of year” occurrence, it is year-round, all around us.
From Ukraine to Sudan, from Gaza to Myanmar, there are “ordinary” people doing what they can to alleviate suffering, to comfort those in distress and to support the fundamentals of human nature. We must never allow the seemingly unremitting delivery of bad news to swamp our appreciation of the innate decency of most people. As Martin Luther King said, “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice”. We may have to wait for it, but justice will come. As a lawyer, “justice delayed is justice denied” is a well-known saying. We can but pray for no further delays in bringing justice to the poor, the suffering and the dispossessed.
On that hopeful note, I will simply end by wishing you and your loved ones a very merry Christmas, a relaxing break and a happy and prosperous New Year.