And that (very nearly) is a wrap. The film-maker’s sign-off seems particularly apt for a year where, frankly, you couldn’t have made it up!
A convicted felon (and a lot else, besides) is about to be inaugurated as President of the United States.
Bitcoin, what most still regard as the froth on (the froth on the froth …) what are the worst excesses of modern-day finance, is now trading at above $100,000.
France’s financing costs are now more expensive than those of Greece.
The German economy is stagnating.
The most stable government in Europe is that of Italy.
I could go on, but you get the picture. The Chinese (whose economy is also contracting) curse is, once again, very relevant: “may you live in interesting times”.
With threats, however, come opportunities. How these threats and opportunities will play out over the year ahead is anyone’s guess, but we are certainly in completely new territory. Risk-takers are, within reason, going to be in their element. Not necessarily because they are any better at assessing risk and reward, but because they are going to be more comfortable in this new environment. Almost every decision, in the coming twelve months, is going to have more risk associated with it than has previously been the case. Almost everything is going to be affected by one or more of the current (and new) uncertainties and so if you are at home with taking decisions that involve risk, you are more likely to be able to make decisions. Indecision is the enemy of progress. To paraphrase Yoda: “Do, or do not, there is no maybe”.
As a corporate and commercial advisory business, we are already seeing the application of a quasi-SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis by our clients to their existing business and future plans. Flexibility is going to be key to the future – not just meaning the ability to quickly pivot but also planning to leave room for a potential pivot.
The past year was also one of change. The most relevant to Kepstorn was the change in government in the UK. This brought an end to the uncertainty surrounding both politics and the economy in the UK (not that there was really any doubt as to the outcome of the election) and ushered in a stable platform upon which difficult decisions could be based.
The jury is still out on whether the decisions being made are going to have the desired effects or, even, whether the sought-after outcomes are the correct focus, but at least decisions are being made and nettles being grasped. The previous eighteen months had seen a perception (not wholly a reality) of “drift” and disengagement. That has now come to an end and so Yoda would approve!
Whilst the cost of living crisis has slightly abated (but only in the sense that prices aren’t rising as fast as they were), there is still an increasing pressure on personal budgets. I have long been a supporter of the Hospice movement in the UK and it is majority funded by private donations, not by the state (a shameful situation). The result is that the decline in personal disposable income means that donations to this essential service have declined. When you add to that the “double whammy” of inflationary pressure on costs (of supplies, staff, etc.) and the increase in Employers National Insurance, the Hospice sector has suffered greatly.
Once again, this year, I am donating to St Vincent’s Hospice. Everyone will have their own ability to support worthwhile causes and so I provide the link to the St Vincent’s Hospice donation page only in the hope that if you have not yet found a cause to support, you may choose this one.
Finally, I mentioned back in August one of the people who helped shape my professional career – Colin Guthrie. It was with great sadness that I learned of his death at the end of November, but I was fortunate to be back in the UK to attend his funeral, earlier today. There were so many present who I hadn’t seen in more than twenty years – all of us connected by the affection, the admiration and the respect for both the man and the professional. He was described during the service in terms that I could not better: “a true gentleman whose like, perhaps, we will never see again”. At 94, a life well-lived and someone who will live on in the effect that he had on all who knew him and which they, in turn, will pass on to those that they know.
All that it remains for me to say (at last, I hear you cry!) is that I hope that you and your loved-ones have a joyful and peaceful Christmas and that the New Year brings you only strengths and opportunities and that all weaknesses and threats evaporate before your eyes.
All the very best.
